In the first half of the year, the trend was "downward stabilization, with a slight rebound," while the overall trend for the year is "steady progress under pressure." At a recent analysis meeting on the operational situation of the machinery industry held by the China Machinery Industry Federation's Expert Committee, special advisor Cai Weici summarized and predicted the operational characteristics of the machinery industry for the first half of the year and the entire year. Cai Weici stated that the differentiation within and between industries has become more pronounced in the first half of the year, with private enterprises performing relatively better. In assessing the trend for the year, he believes that the bottom of the L-shaped curve is basically visible, and the industry will continue to consolidate. Although it is still too early to predict a rebound, at least there is a trend towards stabilization. Cai Weici reminded the industry to pay attention to three risk factors. First, the growth rate of fixed asset investment across society, the entire manufacturing sector, and the machinery industry itself has significantly decreased. Second, although data from the first four months show that the decline in machinery industry exports is narrowing month by month, it is still uncertain whether it can turn from negative to positive. Third, the differentiation within the industry continues to intensify, with the automotive and electrical sectors having a significant impact on industry growth, leading to an excessive reliance on these sectors. Overall, the operational situation is stabilizing, with key indicators performing better than last year. Since the beginning of this year, the economic operation of the machinery industry has continued the stabilization trend observed in the fourth quarter of last year. From January to May, the growth rate of the added value of the machinery industry has returned to being higher than the national industrial average growth rate, after being lower than it last year. A relevant person from the China Machinery Industry Federation stated that currently, due to related industries completing tasks of capacity reduction, inventory reduction, and deleveraging, the impact on the machinery industry is significant, with weak demand and increasing differentiation, and the stabilization trend still needs to be solidified. From the data for the first five months, the main economic indicators of the machinery industry in the first half of this year are better than the national industrial level and the same period last year. Among them, the cumulative growth of national industrial added value is 5.9%, manufacturing growth is 6.7%, and the growth rate of the added value of the machinery industry is 7.6%, which is 1.7 and 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period of the national industry and manufacturing, respectively, and also 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year for the machinery industry. In terms of main business income, from January to April, the machinery industry achieved main business income of 71,649.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.63%, which is 3.35 percentage points higher than the national industrial average during the same period. The total profit of the machinery industry reached 4,643.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.36%, slightly lower than the national industrial average by 0.16 percentage points. Among the 119 major products monitored in the machinery industry, 61 products saw year-on-year growth, accounting for 51.26%, while 58 products saw a year-on-year decline, accounting for 48.74%, with only 16 products experiencing double-digit growth. The differentiation is intensifying, with the electrical and automotive industries performing exceptionally well. Cai Weici noted that in the first half of the year, the industry is stabilizing after a downturn, with the decline narrowing, and the automotive and electrical sectors contributing the most to the industry. Their contribution to the growth of main business income reached 80%. The profit growth of the machinery industry is overly reliant on the automotive and electrical appliance sectors. From the data, from January to April, the machinery industry achieved a total profit of 4,643.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.36%, which is higher than the average level of the machinery industry in the same period last year. Among them, the automotive industry achieved a total profit of 2,044.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.38%, with new profits of 140.61 billion yuan, accounting for 50.68% of the new profits in the machinery industry during the same period, driving the profit growth of the machinery industry by 3.22 percentage points. The electrical appliance industry achieved a profit of 923.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41%, with new profits of 130.22 billion yuan, accounting for 46.93% of the new profits in the machinery industry, driving the profit growth of the machinery industry by 2.98 percentage points. The combined new profit of the automotive and electrical appliance industries reached 270.83 billion yuan, accounting for 97.61% of the new profits of 277.46 billion yuan in the machinery industry. It is worth noting that as the economy enters a medium to low-speed growth phase, the decline in fixed asset investment growth and the serious shortage of orders in the machinery industry remain significant issues. Statistical data shows that the cumulative order amount of key enterprises in the machinery industry has escaped the trend of year-on-year decline, with a year-on-year growth of 4.43% from January to March, rebounding by 13.67 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The cumulative order amount from January to April saw a year-on-year growth of 3.65%, but fell by 0.78 percentage points compared to January to March, indicating an unstable order situation. Although the issue of insufficient orders has improved somewhat, the problem of underutilization of capacity compared to the peak production years remains prominent. Cai Weici stated that due to the close relationship between the development of the machinery industry and fixed asset investment, the significant decrease in the growth rate of fixed asset investment across society, the entire manufacturing sector, and the machinery industry itself needs to be taken seriously by the industry. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to May, the total fixed asset investment across society grew by 9.6%, while investment in the machinery industry grew by 6.31%, which is 3.29 percentage points lower than the growth rate of total social investment but 1.71 percentage points higher than that of the manufacturing sector. Among the 13 major industries in the machinery industry, the electrical appliance industry grew by 11.98%, the automotive industry by 12.42%, the machinery basic components by 10.81%, cultural and office equipment by 23.39%, food packaging machinery by 14.58%, and the construction machinery industry by 8.41%, all of which are higher than the industry average growth rate. The agricultural machinery, internal combustion engine, heavy machinery, and machine tool industries saw year-on-year declines. The instrument and meter, petrochemical general, and other civil machinery industries saw slight increases of around 1%. At the same time, the foreign trade import and export of the machinery industry remains pessimistic. In the first four months of this year, the total import and export volume of the machinery industry accounted for about 18% of the national total. From January to April, the total import and export volume of the machinery industry was 198.497 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 8.95%, with imports at 81.812 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, and exports at 116.685 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 7.75%. In this regard, Cai Weici stated that while the decline in exports is narrowing month by month, it is still uncertain whether it can turn from negative to positive. Moreover, the contribution of exports to industry growth is relatively small, so the industry cannot place too much hope on exports for growth. The China Machinery Industry Federation believes that although the overall operational indicators in the first half of the year are better than the national industrial average and the same period last year, nearly half of the main product outputs have declined year-on-year, the profit growth of the industry shows significant differences, the investment growth rate is at a low level, and foreign trade exports remain pessimistic. Structural overcapacity, weak independent innovation capabilities, extensive production methods, lack of product quality and brand, and low levels of integration of informatization and industrialization are still unresolved contradictions, and the task of improving quality and efficiency in the industry remains daunting.